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An Scientific Enquiry
"Is there Extraterrestrial life in the Universe and more?"uni

Source: Modified from Wikipedia 5th Dec 2015

To begin this small adventure into this question, Builder like to introduce the views from Elon Musk, born June 28, 1971, a South African-born Canadian-American business magnate, engineer, inventor and investor. As an investor he is famous for his 2nd & 3rd project.

The 2nd project would be PayPal started in March 1999, as X.com, an online financial services and e-mail payment company, with US$10 million from the sale of 1st project, Zip2. One year later, the company merged with Confinity, which had a money transfer service called PayPal. The merged company focused on the PayPal service and was renamed PayPal in 2001.

His 3rd project is SpaceX which develops and manufactures space launch vehicles with a focus on advancing the state of rocket technology. The company's first two launch vehicles are the Falcon 1 and Falcon 9 rockets (a nod to Star Wars' Millennium Falcon), and its first spacecraft is the Dragon (a nod to Puff the magic dragon).

With his involvement into space, Builder has chosen to highlight his opinions on 3 interesting questions: The selection of this current person & his views on universe, religion, extraterrestrial life & artificial intelligence would give kids a bird's eye view of things around to act as a platform to zoom into more knowledge, Drake Equation, Fermi Paradox & Stimulation Hypothesis.

Destiny and religion

When asked whether he believed "there was some kind of destiny involved" in humanity's transition to a multi-planetary species, rather than "just physics", Musk responded:

Well, I do. Do I think that there's some sort of master intelligence architecting all of this stuff? I think probably not because then you have to say: "Where does the master intelligence come from?" So it sort of begs the question. So I think really you can explain this with the fundamental laws of physics. You know its complex phenomenon from simple elements.

Musk has stated that he does not pray, or worship any being, although previously admitted to praying before an important Falcon 1 launch, asking "any entities that [were] listening", to "bless [the] launch". When asked whether he believed "religion and science could co-exist", Musk replied "probably not.


Extraterrestrial life

Musk argues that "there is a good chance that there is simple life on other planets", however "questions whether there is other intelligent life in the known universe".  Musk later clarified his "hope that there is other intelligent life in the known universe", and stated that it is "probably more likely than not, but that's a complete guess."

Additionally, Musk has considered the simulation hypothesis as a potential solution to the Fermi paradox:

The absence of any noticeable life may be an argument in favour of us being in a simulation.  Like when you're playing an adventure game, and you can see the stars in the background, but you can't ever get there. If it's not a simulation, then maybe we're in a lab and there's some advanced alien civilization that's just watching how we develop, out of curiosity, like mould in a petri dish.   If you look at our current technology level, something strange has to happen to civilizations, and I mean strange in a bad way.   And it could be that there are a whole lot of dead, one-planet civilizations.


Artificial Intelligence

Sep 2017

Elon Musk billionaire entrepreneur is warning — yet again — about the potential power of artificial intelligence. He had twitted that "AI will be the best or worst thing ever for humanity & recommends a “worth reading”  book on the topic "Life 3.0: Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence" by MIT professor Max Tegmark.

The book describes how will Artificial Intelligence affect crime, war, justice, jobs, society and our very sense of being human?  
It also warned that the rise of AI has the potential to transform our future more than any other technology...
It gives insight into a future with artificial intelligence that Musk has been warning the world about.

Musk had said that AI poses "vastly more risk than North Korea," according to a comment made in August. He calls artificial intelligence a "fundamental risk to the existence of human civilization," speaking to a gathering of governors in July.
Nobody likes being regulated, but everything (cars, planes, food, drugs, etc) that's a danger to the public is regulated. AI should be too.  He thus supports government regulation of artificial intelligence, saying the government should be "proactive in regulation," not reactive.

Musk further elaborate: Robots will take your jobs, government will have to pay your wage.  Robots will push us to a universal basic income—here's how it would work because  'Robots will be able to do everything better than us'

Others have chastised Musk about his predictions. Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg calls such severe warnings "pretty irresponsible." fb elon



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What follows are 3 subjects that are related to this question in this page. However it must be stressed, writer probably over simply in order that kids can brush at this in the vast world of knowledge.

1 Drake equation

The Drake equation is a probabilistic argument used to arrive at an estimate of the number of active, communicative extraterrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy. Dr Frank Drake born 28th May 1930, an American wrote this equation in 1961 mainly to stimulate scientific dialogue at a meeting on the Search for ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence (SETI).

The Drake equation is: 

N = R* . fp . ne . fl . fi . fc . L

In the original estimate, inserting minimum numbers into the equation gives a minimum N of 20. Inserting the maximum numbers gives a maximum of 50,000,000. Drake states that given the uncertainties, the original meeting concluded that N ≈ L, and there were probably between 1000 and 100,000,000 civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy.

With current estimates into the original equation, using a value of 0.1 wherever the text says someone has proposed an unspecified "low value," results in the range of N being from a low of 2 to a high of 280,000,000.

Criticism of the Drake equation follows mostly from the observation that several terms in the equation are largely or entirely based on conjecture.


2 Fermi paradox

The Fermi paradox — or Fermi's paradox — is the apparent contradiction between high estimates of the probability of the existence of extraterrestrial civilizations, such as in the Drake equation, and the lack of evidence for such civilizations.

The basic points of the argument, made by physicists Enrico Fermi (1901-1954) and Michael H. Hart (born 1932), are:

  • The Sun is a typical star, and there are billions of stars in the galaxy that are billions of years older.
  • With high probability, some of these stars will have Earth-like planets,and if the earth is typical, some might develop intelligent life.
  • Some of these civilizations might develop interstellar travel, a step the Earth is investigating now.
  • Even at the slow pace of currently envisioned interstellar travel, the Milky Way galaxy could be completely traversed in about a million years.
  • According to this line of thinking, the Earth should already have been visited by extraterrestrial aliens though Fermi saw no convincing evidence of this, nor any signs of alien intelligence anywhere in the observable universe, leading him to ask, "Where is everybody?"


3 Simulation hypothesis

The simulation hypothesis contends that reality is in fact a simulation (most likely a computer simulation), of which we, the stimulants, are totally unaware. This technology has been a central plot device of many science fiction stories and films. This hypothesis can be used as a potential solution to the above Fermi paradox.

In its current form, the Simulation Argument began in 2003 with the publication of a paper by Nick Bostrom. Bostrom considers that the argument goes beyond skepticism, claiming that "… we have interesting empirical reasons to believe that a certain disjunctive claim about the world is true", one of the disjunctive propositions being that we are almost certainly living in a simulation. Bostrom and other writers postulate there are empirical reasons why the 'Simulation Hypothesis' might be valid. Bostrom's trilemma is formulated in temporal logic as follows:

"A technologically mature "posthuman" civilization would have enormous computing power. Based on this empirical fact, the simulation argument shows that at least one of the following propositions is true:

    1. The fraction of human-level civilizations that reach a posthuman stage is very close to zero;
    2. The fraction of posthuman civilizations that are interested in running ancestor-simulations is very close to zero;
    3. <li">The fraction of all people with our kind of experiences that are living in a simulation is very close to one.

If (1) is true, then we will almost certainly go extinct before reaching posthumanity.

If (2) is true, then there must be a strong convergence among the courses of advanced civilizations so that virtually none contains any relatively wealthy individuals who desire to run ancestor-simulations and are free to do so.

If (3) is true, then we almost certainly live in a simulation. In the dark forest of our current ignorance, it seems sensible to apportion one's credence roughly evenly between (1), (2), and (3).

Unless we are now living in a simulation, our descendants will almost certainly never run an ancestor-simulation."


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